AIADMK's strategy: contrasting attitudes towards centre and state BJP.

Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is a very strong party in most parts of India. However, its vote-share in Tamil Nadu is only around 2.5%. A majority of people in the state are against BJP (though certain classes in urban areas may not see this, there is a lot of resentment against the party particularly among the rural and poor urban people). However, the party allied with AIADMK which is ruling in the state. The two parties had a seat sharing agreement for the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, and AIADMK was expected to support BJP's bills in parliament. The AIADMK lost its vote-share because of the alliance. When they were against certain policies, the AIADMK MPs would sometimes speak out against them in the parliamentary debates and afterwards say 'Aye (we support the bill)' during the voting.

The AIADMK is likely to have allied with BJP because of fear of the CBI and Article 356. What's more, BJP plays favouritism politics in the centre-state relationship.

Difference between BJP now and in 1984.

Back in the 1984 Lok Sabha elections, BJP won just two seats. At that time, BJP was generally seen as a party which caused a lot of riots. Only those who found those riots really justifiable would join and support BJP.

Once BJP started becoming stronger, people started voting for it as an alternative to Congress and for various other reasons.

Now the atmosphere has completely changed. BJP won't cause so many 'riots' because they 'have already won the battle so there would be no need to continue fighting.' When there are riots, people tend to blame the other side, while earlier people would have generally blamed BJP.

However, in Tamil Nadu, BJP does not have grassroots support and in some ways, it is still in the '1984 stage.'

AIADMK's change in the new decade:

In alliance with AIADMK, BJP was slowly expanding its base in the state. At the national level they were able to pass most bills in parliament, but they were unable to pass some of the very controversial bills which AIADMK was against (They need AIADMK's support to pass bills in the Rajya Sabha).

In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the AIADMK-BJP alliance lost very badly in the state. AIADMK got its lowest ever vote-share. However, BJP won a landslide victory nationally.

After the elections, AIADMK began to support even the controversial bills in parliament. However, in the beginning of the new decade, the BJP state unit started facing problems.

On 1st January 2020, BJP led a protest on Marina beach. They had held smaller protests in the past,but this was a big protest which included state leaders like former union minister Pon. Radhakrishnan and C.P Radhakrishnan; party national secretary H. Raja; national council minister La. Ganesan. All these top BJP leaders and many others were detained by the police.

Ever since, the Tamil Nadu government has not compromised one bit on the law and order situation which BJP keeps trying to break.

Here are some examples:

• Ex IPS officer K. Annamalai joined BJP on 24th August 2020. Within just a few days of joining the party, he was booked under the Epidemic act on charges of unlawful assembly.
• BJP was scheduled to induct ‘Redhills’ Suryah into the party on 1st September. He has been accused in more than 50 cases (including 6 murders). He was suppose to join BJP in the presence of state President L. Murugan. However the police heard of his plan and rushed to the spot. Before he could join BJP, he spotted the police coming towards him and fled in a car. The police later questioned an embarrassed L. Murugan.

Next part of the strategy:

AIADMK does not want to criticise BJP much, while DMK and almost every other party opposes it.The Tamil Nadu government is now selectively allowing certain protests.

In mid October, BJP and Thol Thirumavalavan's Vidudalai Chiruthaigal Ktachi (VCK) got into a fight on social media. This escalated into clashes among the cadres of the two parties. The Tamil Nadu police arrested significantly more BJP members than VCK members. In one incident, BJP members were in the police van going to be detained when VCK members started throwing stones at the windows. Even then, the police did not take much action against VCK.

All this happened in-spite of the fact that VCK is allied with DMK (AIADMK's arch rival).

KhushbuSundar,

@khushsundar

When your journey is cut short by force, you know you are on right track. I question @AIADMKOfficial, n #CM of TN @EPSTamilNadu, avl, why we are denied of our democratic right for a peaceful protest when other parties are given the permission to do the same? Why this partiality?

The Tamil Nadu government had cancelled the Gram Sabha meetings scheduled for 2nd Oct 2020. When DMK protested, the police missed no opportunity in filing cases against protesters.

The Tamil Nadu government passed a bill to provide 7.5% reservation for government school students. The governor (obviously with instructions from BJP) did not approve the bill. This time, when DMK wanted to protest against the governor, the Tamil Nadu government went as far as to give them permission to protest near Raj Bhavan!

Though AIADMK isn't openly criticising BJP, they are making it easy for opposition parties to do so.

Essentially, AIADMK is sending a message to BJP saying:

You may be the boss at the national level, but we are the boss in Tamil Nadu.

It remains to be seen how well this strategy will work for AIADMK. Most poor-urban and rural people are strongly against many of the central government's policies. AIADMK has supported many such policies. People might not be satisfied with AIADMK's relationship with BJP, and being tough with the state unit of the party might not be satisfying. However, the BJP factor may not be as strong for the assembly elections as it was for the Lok Sabha elections.

Similar situation:

In Andhra Pradesh the ruling YSR-Congress has a similar attitude towards BJP. They also support almost all BJP's policies, and they are also are very strict with the state unit. BJP has less than 1% vote-share in the state.

The difference is, there is not so much resentment against the central government as there is in Tamil Nadu. Most people are oblivious of the central government. However, the people of the state are very much against the BJP's ideology at the grassroots level.