BJP’s strategy to expand south: Magnifying its presence before elections to appear more powerful

The Narayanaswamy led UPA government in Puducherry had a majority of 18 against 14 of the opposition. Towards the end of January 2021 MLAs from the ruling alliance started resigning. By 22nd February, as many as six MLAs had resigned and the government lost the vote of confidence. The term was anyway going to end in three months. Why was the opposition so desperate to topple the government if it would only be for a short time? BJP had a hand in getting MLAs to resign even though they are not the main opposition. Why did they do it? Read on to know.

BJP is planning to do similar things as it did in certain north-eastern states in 2018.

What happened in the March 2018 assembly elections:

Assembly elections were held in three states in March 2018: Tripura, Meghalaya and Nagaland. Each state had 60 assembly seats.

BJP did not have much presence in these states earlier. They had had some presence in Nagaland. In the 2018 elections it won 12 seats, up from one seat in 2013. In Tripura and Meghalaya, they had not even had a single seat earlier. In the 2018 elections, they won two seats in Meghalaya. However, in Tripura they became much more powerful winning as many as 36 seats

How did BJP do so well in Tripura?

As suggested by the results, BJP spent much more money and effort campaigning in Tripura. The reason is that the state has a large Bengali population (around 80%). It is such a small state and yet if BJP was to run one government with Bengalis, it would be much easier to gain popularity in another Bengali state. They were eyeing West Bengal which is one of the biggest states in India.

Likewise, BJP is trying hard to establish itself in Puducherry because if it gets powerful, it will be easier to get into Tamil Nadu.

What did BJP do in Meghalaya?

There was a hung assembly in Meghalaya with two major parties: Congress with 21 seats, and National People’s Party (NPP) with 20 seats. The remaining 19 seats went to smaller parties and independents of which two seats went to BJP.

BJP was ruling in the centre and in neighbouring Assam, so they had a lot of power. Senior BJP leader Hemanta Biswa Sarma went to Meghalaya and helped NPP get smaller parties into the alliance. NPP leader Conrad Sangma was sworn-in as Chief Minister, and there were a total of 12 cabinet ministers. Out of the 12, BJP got one cabinet berth.

Meghalaya is a very small state and NPP is a very small party so people hardly know of it. So, to the rest of the country the media largely gave the impression that ‘BJP had formed the government in Meghalaya.’ Even when it was mentioned that BJP was the junior partner, people might not have known that the party has only two MLAs and just a single minister!

Puducherry is also a small state like Meghalaya and hardly gets media attention. People outside Puducherry hardly know that N. R Congress is the major opponent to Congress. So if BJP is in the government, they can give the same impression as they did in Meghalaya.

How much presence does BJP actually have in Puducherry?

BJP did not win even one seat in the Puducherry legislative assembly. However, the assembly has three nominated members (who are not elected by the voters). In 2017, then Lieutenant Governor Kiran Bedi nominated BJP members to all three seats!

The opposition which is now likely to come to power consists of N. R. Congress with seven seats; AIADMK with four seats; and BJP with three (nominated) seats. Together they have a total of 14 seats which is now an absolute majority.

Some ways in which BJP may get magnified:

• One may think BJP has won some seats in Puducherry. In reality, all BJP MLAs are nominated
• One may get the impression that BJP’s allies (N. R Congress and AIADMK) won a reasonable number of seats. The truth is, neither N. R Congress nor AIADMK were allied with BJP during the last assembly elections.
• One may get the impression that BJP is ruling in Puducherry. In reality, it is the smallest party in the alliance.
• One may hear of BJP having ministers in Puducherry and assume things must be similar in Tamil Nadu. But BJP has never had ministers in the Tamil Nadu cabinet (as of 2020). In the 2001 Tamil Nadu assembly elections, BJP won four out of 234 seats in alliance with DMK. They went alone the next election, and were unable to retain even those four seats. Apart from 2006, BJP has not won any seat in Tamil Nadu.

BJP is a very big and powerful party. However, there are times it appears to be bigger than it really is.