How AIADMK is trying not to lose votes due to the alliance with BJP

All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) which is ruling in Tamil Nadu, is an ally of the central ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). BJP does not have much presence in Tamil Nadu. In 2016, the party's vote-share was just 2.84%, so the party was keen on having an alliance to boost its presence in the state. After the passing away of AIADMK leader J. Jayalalithaa, there was some amount of chaos in the party. BJP took the opportunity and put pressure on AIADMK and sealed an alliance with it. The two parties contested the 2019 Lok Sabha elections together, and both did very badly in the state. AIADMK managed to win just one seat, and all its allies (including BJP) drew blank.

AIADMK had lost a lot of support due to the alliance with BJP. However, BJP had won very well in other parts of the country and formed the government with a very big majority. So AIADMK found it safer to stay with BJP.

Since the BJP high-command was strongly in favour of the alliance, the two parties continued to ally for the assembly polls as well. However, AIADMK felt that it was likely to lose a lot of support because of the alliance. This made the party distance itself and come down strongly on BJP on many occasions. And BJP, which knew that it needed AIADMK's support to get votes in Tamil Nadu, found it difficult to counter these attacks.

Preventing communal clashes

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Often, when communal clashes break out in the country, BJP is seen to be on the side of the Hindus. So when BJP announced its plan to conduct a 'Vel' Yathra (much like the Rath Yatra in the 1980s and 1990s), people were worried that unnecessary riots would break out in the state. The AIADMK government did not give permisson to the Yathra, but state BJP leaders went ahead with it anyway. At least they tried to go ahead with it.

Many BJP leaders, including state president L. Murugan were arrested as soon as they started the Yathra. Every few days they would try to go again, and they would all get arrested. Senior leaders including party state president L. Murugan, former union ministers Pon. Radhakrishnan and C.P Radhakrishnan national women's wing secretary Vanathi Srinivasan and many others were arrested on multiple occasions. AIADMK released a party statement on the incidents.

The peaceful state of Tamil Nadu will not allow processions that aim at dividing people on the basis of caste and religion. All those concerned must understand this. The people of Tamil Nadu have repeatedly proven to the entire country that the Dravidian cradle of Tamil Nadu is the place where religion is considered as a guiding lamp for human beings and not to propagate hatred... AIADMK will not allow efforts to gain vote bank politics in the names of religions. Those who organise the Vel Yatra must understand this. --Namadhu Amma (AIADMK mouth piece)

Coalition government

BJP likes to 'magnify' its presence. Since it does not have much presence, it obviously could not say, "We are going to form the government." However BJP had something else to say

The BJP will emerge as an unshakable force in Tamil Nadu. We will be the deciding factor for the next government formation in Tamil Nadu. --L. Murugan, BJP President

But apparently even that was not acceptable. Just hours after L. Murugan made the statement, AIADMK leaders strongly criticised it.

There is no room for talks on a coalition government in Tamil Nadu. We will contest with allies, but we will form the government on our own. The AIADMK will continue the legacy of MGR and Amma of never sharing the cabinet with any other party. -- D. Jayakumar, AIADMK leader

It might be surprising that allies were fighting in such a way. AIADMK explained that BJP leaders were too enthusiastic. They claimed that it was necessary to make certain statements to counter BJP's 'over-enthusiasm.'

Later, chief minister Edappadi Palaniswami, and AIADMK deputy coordinator released official statements on the issue.

Party ideologies are different from the ideologies of their allies. The AIADMK is allied with other parties only for winning maximum number of seats. After the elections, AIADMK will form the government on its own and act exclusively according to its own ideology... The people of Tamil Nadu will never accept a coalition government. --Edappadi Palaniswami, AIADMK co-coordinator and chief minister

There is no meaning or need for coalition government. If any party allies with us thinking of getting a cabinet berth, then they had better re-think about the alliance...Ever since 1967 when Anna (DMK founder C. N. Annadurai) formed the government, Dravidian rule has ensured that no national party can enter Tamil Nadu. After the absence of Amma (Jayalalithaa) and Karunanidhi, some national parties and opportunists are saying that Dravidian rule spoiled the state. They will never succeed in coming to power. --K. P. Munusamy, AIADMK deputy coordinator and MP

Seat sharing arrangement

During the Lok Sabha elections, AIADMK had given half the seats to its allies, including 1/8th (five seats) to BJP. However, it now told its allies that it needed to stand in many seats such that it looks like it can get absolute majority on its own. There was a big problem, as all its allies put together demanded more than half of the 234 seats. BJP demanded 40 seats.

AIADMK strategically sealed the alliance with Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK) first. PMK which is a Vanniyar caste based party, had originally demanded 50 seats. AIADMK passed a bill to give 10.5 reservation to the Vanniyar community for one year. After AIADMK passed the bill, PMK agreed to stand in just 23 seats.

AIADMK then claimed that since PMK is the principle ally, it would be difficult to allot more than 23 seats to BJP. However, BJP wanted to stand in at least 25.

There were more problems. Normally a party takes the seats where it has the most presence among its allies. However, in all the 234 seats of Tamil Nadu, there were just three seats where BJP had more presence than AIADMK. And there were just eight seats where it had retained its security deposit (got at least 1/6th of the votes). So BJP wanted many seats in AIADMK strongholds, particularly in the Gounder-belt. Another problem was that DMK was planning to contest 190 seats. Earlier AIADMK had kept 160 seats as its target, but now that seemed too few. AIADMK asked BJP if it would be content with 15 seats, and it could choose which seats it wanted (indirectly indicating that otherwise AIADMK would decide). BJP did not accept the offer. Eventually, BJP was given 20 seats, and the Kannyakumari Lok Sabha seat which was going to by-polls.

Till now, AIADMK had told PMK and BJP that it had to accommodate Desiya Murpokka Dravida Kazhagam (DMDK) as well. It used DMDK as the reason not to give the other allies so many seats. However, after BJP and PMK had settled for fewer seats, AIADMK gave DMDK such a small offer, that it walked out of the alliance. It was too late for PMK and BJP to demand more seats. All other AIADMK allies (including Tamil Manila Congress (Moopanar) ) contested under AIADMK's Two leaves symbol. So AIADMK could claim it was standing in 191 seats which was more than DMK which was standing in 189 (AIADMK was really standing in 179 seats and DMK in 173).

Seat allotment

The next step was to decide which party would stand in which seats. AIADMK had offered to let BJP decide which seats to contest had it accepted 15 seats. However, since BJP took more seats, AIADMK decided which seats to give BJP. Of the 20 seats, as many as 16 seats were seats where the DMK alliance had sitting MLAs.

With very few exceptions, AIADMK did not allot more than one seat per district to BJP. Coimbatore district is an AIADMK stronghold, and BJP got around 8% vote-share in 2016. Even in this district, BJP was only given one out of the ten seats. There were only two exceptions: Chennai, where BJP was allotted two out of 22 seats, and Kanniyakumari district where BJP was allotted three seats. During the Lok Sabha elections, BJP got a majority of votes one assembly segment: Paramakudi. AIADMK did not allot that seat to BJP.

And even the one seat per district which BJP was alloted were chosen very carefully. For example, in Krishnagiri district, AIADMK had an average vote-share of 37%. It chose Thalli seat to give to BJP which was the only seat in the district where AIADMK came third, and one of the only two seats in the whole state where AIADMK lost its security deposit (got less than 16.7 vote-share). In Kanniyakumari district, there are three seats where BJP has more presence that AIADMK. Those three seats were allotted to BJP. In Tirunelveli constituency, BJP candidate Nainar Nagendran has won twice in the past on an AIADMK ticket. So even though DMK has a sitting MLA, it is a good seat for BJP. All the other 12 seats are almost impossible seats for BJP.

Kanniyakumari is one place in Tamil Nadu where some people vote along religious lines. BJP gets a reasonable amount of Hindu votes, and is contesting the Kanniyakumari Lok Sabha seat which is going to by-polls. However, AIADMK and TMC have fielded Christian candidates in the Padmanabhapuram and Killiyoor assembly seats which are in Kanniyakumari district.

BJP was allotted four seats where AIADMK has sitting MLAs:

In Erode district, AIADMK won all the seats with an average victory margin of around 1,000 votes. It allotted Modakkurichi seats where its victory margin was just 2,222 votes. So there are only three seats, Coimbatore North, Madurai West and Ramanathapuram, where AIADMK is propping up BJP well.

*22.72 is the difference in the votes between DMK and AIADMK. AIADMK came third in the seat.

Manifesto

AIADMK released its manifesto on 15th March 2021. It included urging the centre to scrap the Citizenship (amendment) Bill (CAA) (AIADMK had voted in favour of it in parliament). The manifesto also urged the centre to grant dual citizenship to Tamils from Sri Lanka. Something BJP had strongly refused to do.

BJP objected strongly saying that AIADMK unilaterally released its manifesto without consulting its allies.

This is the AIADMK’s manifesto, not the NDA’s. So far they have not discussed this with us. We will take it up with them now. C. T. Ravi, BJP's Tamil Nadu in charge [Source]

AIADMK did not remove the scrapping of CAA from its manifesto, but a few days later BJP released its own manifesto. It included granting citizenship to more Sri Lankan refugees. It also included making Tamil the language used in the Madras High-court, something AIADMK had demanded earlier, and the central government had not done.

Campaign

BJP normally refers to its alliance as the 'National Democratic Alliance led by Narendra Modi.' However, in Tamil Nadu, even when union minister Amit Shah was campaigning, he referred to it as the 'AIADMK-BJP-PMK alliance.'

Senior BJP leaders only campaigned in seats BJP was standing. AIADMK did not invite them to campaign for AIADMK candidates.

When AIADMK leaders were campaigning along with BJP, BJP normally made sure not to make communal statements. In Coimbatore south -- one of the only seats in Tamil Nadu with Hindu-Muslim conflicts-- there were a lot of communal clashes during election campaigns. When Uttar Pradesh chief minister Yogi Adityanath came to campaign, BJP cadres hurled stones at Muslim shops and asked the shopkeepers to down thir shutters. AIADMK leaders were not seen along with BJP leaders.

Will AIADMK be successful at distancing itself from BJP?

Read also: DMK may have miscalculated while criticising AIADMK in its election campaign

While AIADMK has distanced itself from BJP quite a bit considering the two are allied, the fact remains that the two parties are still allied. Those against BJP are unlikely to get attracted to AIADMK.

However, there are many people who are strongly in favour of AIADMK, and strongly against BJP. They would have been unsure who to vote for, and would have been watching developments closely. These people are likely to vote for the alliance as long as BJP is not the party standing in their seat.

Palaniswami vs Panneerselvem

There is a feeling that Palaniswami wants to distance the party from BJP, while Panneerselvam wants to 'kowtow' more. Appart from the BJP factor, there are many other problems due to the conflict between the two leaders. People in northern Tamil Nadu will feel that if AIADMK wins strongly in that region, Panneerselvam will be weakened and all the problems will be solved.

How will AIADMK relate to BJP if it wins the election?

On one hand the AIADMK leaders will feel strong because they won the election even without Jayalalithaa. They may then feel confident enough to start being tough with BJP and opposing the centre whenever necessary.

On the other hand, being against the party ruling at the centre is not easy. If AIADMK wins in spite of being allied with BJP, it may take the easy way out and start supporting BJP more.

But being allied with BJP is just one among the many problems AIADMK is facing. It needs to work hard to keep its existing vote-bank due to the alliance with BJP. If it is to win, it would have had to overcome the anti-incumbency feeling as well as keep its hardcore vote-bank intact.