DMK may have miscalculated while criticising AIADMK during its election campaign

All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) won the 2016 Tamil Nadu legislative assembly elections under the leadership of J. Jayalalithaa. She was re-elected as chief minister for the 6th time. However, she passed away in December that year.

There was a lot of chaos in the government, since she had not named a successor, and there was no particular prominent leader who stood above everyone else. Finance minister O. Panneerselvam became chief minister for a couple of months, after which highways minister Edappadi Palaniswami took over as chief minister.

Initial feelings about the government

There was so much instability in the government, that it didn't give the impression of being good at governance. It gave the impression that it was going to collapse any moment. The general feeling was that AIADMK was not doing anything good for the public, and its cabinet ministers were just 'looting' the state as much as possible, since anyway they couldn't think of winning again.

At this point in time, Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) leader, and leader of the opposition M. K Stalin really gained popularity. He would speak out strongly against the wrong-doings and mismanagements of the AIADMK government.

Unlike many politicians, he would speak very clearly and calmly (and some people felt that Palaniswami used to just mumble).

'Benami of BJP'

The central ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) does not have much presence in Tamil Nadu. In the 2016 assembly elections, it secured a vote-share of just 2.84%.

There were many central government policies which Jayalalithaa had vehemently opposed. But after she passed away, the Modi government at the centre passed many laws which many people in the state were against (including NEET). AIADMK was either supporting these laws, or else not opposing them strongly enough. To stay in power, AIADMK, on many occasions needed support from the BJP appointed Governor. It also needed general support from the centre to not get destabilised.

DMK called the the AIADMK government the 'Benami government' of the BJP.

AIADMK even had an electoral alliance with BJP for the 2019 Lok Sabha elections and gave them 5 seats (12.5%) even their vote-share was just about a fifth of that.

BJP won well in other parts of India and formed the government, but in Tamil Nadu the DMK led Secular Progressive Alliance swept the polls winning 38 out of 39 seats. DMK's average victory margin was around 2.4 lakh votes, higher than any other party in the country. It became the third largest party in the country.

Post Lok Sabha elections

After the thumping victory in the Lok Sabha elections, DMK began to criticise the AIADMK government more aggressively. The strategy seemed to have worked well, and there were just two years left for the assembly elections.

However, the impression AIADMK gives has changed. When Palaniswami had just become chief minister, it felt like he was just somehow trying to stay in power and not thinking of governing properly. At that point in time, Stalin's style of campaigning worked well. But now that Palaniswami has ruled the state for four years, he has gained some influence. So many people will think that AIADMK can't be as bad as DMK is making it out to be.

Why DMK supporters may not notice the problem in the party's style of campaigning

There are some people who think that the AIADMK government is completely useless and completely corrupt. Since DMK won by such a big majority, it believes that a majority of voters think along those lines. If one thinks along those lines to start with, there won't be anything objectionable in the way DMK is critical of AIADMK. Over the last few years, these people would have heard such bad things AIADMK has done, that they would not understand how anyone would want to support AIADMK. DMK thinks that if it criticises AIADMK more strongly, more people will start thinking along those lines, and it will get more support.

However, there are many people who supported DMK in 2019, but did not have such strong leanings against AIADMK. These people would have slowly started finding DMK's criticism of AIADMK slightly exaggerated; and later on they would have found it very exaggerated. Now they are likely to think that DMK is just trying to find fault wherever it can.

Had DMK campaigned in a different way, they may have agreed with certain points it made against AIADMK. But now the immediate reaction would be, "AIADMK can't be all that bad," and there would be a tendency not to listen to any valid points DMK makes after that.

Anti-BJP factor may not work so well for the assembly elections

Read also: How AIADMK is trying not to lose votes due to the alliance with BJP

DMK won so well in the Lok Sabha elections partly because of the resentment towards the AIADMK government in the state. However, the main reason was because of the resentment towards the BJP government at the centre. There were many people who were against the central government, but not against the state government. For example, in the Vilathikulam assembly by-poll where AIADMK stood, DMK got just 26.28% of the votes (AIADMK got 44.32%). In that same area, BJP state president Dr. Tamilisai Soundararajan was standing for the Lok Sabha seat, and DMK got 49.28% (BJP got 35.11). Voting took place at exactly the same time, and yet DMK got just half the number of votes when contesting against AIADMK. The people who voted for DMK only because of the resentment against BJP, may not like the way the party campaigns against AIADMK.

DMK won the Lok Sabha elections by a very big margin. Even if it loses a quarter of its votes, it is still likely to win the assembly elections. However, its strategy to get more support seems to have back-fired. It has succeeded in making its supporters have extremely strong feelings against AIADMK. But in doing so, DMK is likely to have lost a lot of supporters.