Uddhav has been CM for a year. Is there something more awaiting him in future?

Uddhav Thackeray has been the Chief Minister of Maharashtra for a year. To get the post he had to take a big u-turn (or rather a v-turn) allying with NCP and Congress. If his party had stayed with BJP, it would definitely have got the post of Deputy Chief Minister. However, it broke the alliance and allied with NCP and Congress to get the Chief Minister’s post. Being allied with these two parties has been a watershed for Shiv Sena. Is there something more that the party is expecting?

Advantage about Maharashtra being the ‘financial capital’:

Since Maharashtra is the ‘financial capital’ of India, what happens in the state can have an impact all over the country. The ruling party in the centre cannot easily ignore the party ruling in Maharashtra.

Some incidents have happened in the past one year where this can be seen.

For example, there was trouble last May about Uddhav Thackeray remaining as Chief Minister.

He was supposed to get into the legislative council by 28th May 2020. Otherwise, he would have had to give up being Chief Minister. Elections were supposed to be held to the council before then, but the election commission had cancelled them. The Governor was going to nominate members to the council, but he did not accept Uddhav Thackeray’s candidature. Uddhav Thackeray telephoned Prime Minister Narendra Modi and said he could not handle destabilisation politics during the pandemic.

No other Chief Minister has been so direct and so bold towards Narendra Modi. Soon after the phone call, the election commission announced that elections would take place. Uddhav Thackeray was successfully elected to the council. The Maharashtra government is able to stick its neck out in ways no other government has been able to.

Another fact about Maharashtra, is that it is highly developed. In many ways it is more developed than Gujarat. The country sometimes faces problems between the north and the south. Maharashtra is sort of in between the two.

Since Uddhav Thackeray is in a strong position, could he be a prospective Prime Minister? Looking at these facts about Maharashtra, it seems very possible. However, if you look at the ground reality of Shiv Sena it seems almost impossible. Shiv Sena is unlikely to win seats anywhere outside Maharashtra. And what other party will be willing to support it? It was difficult enough to get the support of NCP and Congress (specially Congress) to form the government in Maharashtra.

Why is BJP attacking Shiv Sena so much?

Though Shiv Sena only has presence in Maharashtra, BJP is now attacking it even outside Maharashtra.

 Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath is always criticising his Maharashtra counterpart. But what is even more noticeable is BJP's campaign in Bihar elections.

Film actor Sushant Singh Rajput was found to have committed suicide in mid June. The incident happened in Mumbai, and Rajput was a Bihari. BJP claimed Rhea Chakraborty had abetted the suicide. It claimed that the Maharashtra government did not take enough action against her—and did so in spite of the fact that evidence suggested she did not abet suicide. It also blamed the government for not investing the death properly.

Sushant Singh Rajput was Bihari. While campaigning in Bihar, BJP kept on raising the issue of Rajput’s death.

What's more, BJP attacked the Maharashtra government over many other things. On 12th October, there was a major powercut in Mumbai. BJP spoke about it in length while campaigning in Bihar and claimed such things did not happen under the Nitish Kumar government in Bihar.

Former Maharashtra Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis was the star campaigner in Maharashtra.

Why is BJP so concerned about Shiv Sena in Bihar elections? There are local parties and Congress which are direct rivals. There is only one explanation: BJP is scared of Shiv Sena. That can be the only reason why it is attacking the party outside Maharashtra.

Why is BJP scared of Shiv Sena?

BJP claims Congress and many other parties appease minorities. It also claims that only a BJP government in the centre can fight foreign invasion. The two claims won't work if the BJP has Shiv Sena—an ultra-nationalist patriotic and Hindutva party—as its opponent (so BJP has to be content by criticising other issues like powercuts).

Shiv Sena has attacked the BJP government on many issues for which BJP didn't know how to respond. The Kashmir problem is one such issue.

In the Kashmir Valley, bloodshed is taking place every day and the lives of innocent people are being lost. Even with the abrogation of Article 370 and the partition of Kashmir, the question remains. A photo of Ayad sitting on his dead grandfather's chest and crying went viral on social media... Some Union ministers posted the photo on their Twitter handles, giving way to tears... Grandfather Ahmed Khan was killed in the firing and [his] grandson Ayad was rescued by the jawans...The responsibility for such bloodshed in the Kashmir Valley falls on the government. Such pictures have come to the fore only in Syria, Egypt, Somalia and Afghanistan that the grandson, who knows that his grandfather is dead and will never rise again, is trying to wake him up. The sacrifices of our soldiers continue in the Kashmir Valley... It is true that Article 370 has been deleted, but Kashmiri Pandits have not been able to return home. The Kashmiri Pandit, who is also the sarpanch, was assassinated by militants a month ago. This is terrible.

--Saamana (Shiv Sena’s mouthpiece).

Earlier both BJP and Shiv Sena found it difficult to ally with 'mainstream' parties. But now that BJP is ruling in the centre, the political climate is changing and BJP is becoming a 'mainstream' party. And so is its former ally Shiv Sena.

For example, two decades ago, all other parties were against the construction of the Ram Temple in the exact spot as the Babri Masjid once stood. But last August, almost every political party supported the construction of the temple.

Just like how many parties are allying with BJP to be in power, some parties might ally with Shiv Sena if it will help them come to power.

BJP may be overreacting and Shiv Sena may not be a threat. On the other hand, BJP may be able to see the future. After all, it is very good at strategising. But whatever it is, BJP is scared that the Shiv Sena may become a threat at the national level.

It remains to be seen whether BJP continues to attack Shiv Sena, or not. But if BJP feels more insecure, its attacks on Shiv Sena will become more intense.